Draft Day & RookiesBy Jim CoventryDraft Day and rookies: What should you do? Let’s face it, there are a large number of fantasy football owners that are in love with the promise of each year’s rookie class. Recent breakthroughs by the likes of Fred Taylor, Randy Moss, and Jamal Lewis (to name a few), in their rookie years have only enhanced this drafting trend. How do you make the smart decision when calling that rookie’s name when your pick comes up? I will break down the logic that goes into making those decisions: First of all, the media needs to create stories. Each year around the time of the NFL draft, the experts come out and let you know why ten to fifteen players are going to make their big splash in the league. Names that quickly come to mind are: KiJana Carter, Blair Thomas, Andre Ware, David Klingler, Akili Smith, Kevin Faulk, Cade McNown, and John Avery. What do these players have in common? They’ve all been pegged as difference makers. They’ve made a difference all right! They’ve made NFL and fantasy GM’s look foolish. On the other hand, they have been right on many occasions, such as the names I mentioned earlier in this article.
Next, I’d like to identify some of the top 25 fantasy players and their general origin: For each of these, I will separate them into four categories:
Category 1: Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison, Daunte Culpepper, Kurt Warner, Stephen Davis, Lamar Smith, Terrell Davis, James Stewart, Brian Griese, Jeff Garcia, Cris Carter, Ed McCaffrey, Rod Smith Category 2: Peyton Manning, Curtis Martin, Isaac Bruce Category 3: Marshall Faulk, Jamal Lewis, Fred Taylor, Ahman Green, Tony Gonzalez Category 4: Edgerrin James, Randy Moss, Eddie George, Ricky Williams As you can see, the majority of top players emerge ‘out of nowhere.’ After that, very few of the ‘iron-clad rookie locks’ pan out into anything special. This also tells you that many of the players that will become cornerstones of your franchise will be found on your free agent list. Last year produced Jeff Garcia, Aaron Brooks, Mike Anderson, Joe Horn, Darrell Jackson, Derrick Mason, and Ahman Green. Maybe Daunte Culpepper went undrafted in some leagues. This helps us learn the lesson, "Draft smart, but be smarter on the free agent wire." This season, many owners will be tempted to spend high picks on players such as LaDainian Tomlinson, Michael Bennett, Koren Robinson, David Terrell, Reggie Wayne, Rod Gardner, Freddie Mitchell, and maybe even (though doubtful) Michael Vick. I will not disagree that one or two of these players will do well, but I can tell you that most of these players will be overmatched this year. If I were so daring as to spend a high pick on a rookie, it may be Michael Bennett, because he steps into a high-powered offense where little attention can be paid to him, and all he needs to do is be fast, which he is. After that, I can’t see any of these players making a big splash this year. Tomlinson is rated very highly on draft boards, but I don’t think Flutie exactly scares defenses, so LaDainian will be a target from day one. Somehow, I see him as the next KiJana Carter. In closing, I recommend that you select proven players first, and if you have to take a chance, do so after your starters and top reserves have been selected. But don’t forget, watch the free agency wire regularly, and as soon as some ‘no-name’ is breaking out, take him right away. Let the other owners take the big chances that will spoil their season.
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